Forecasts are a projection of the number of downloads a podcast might receive in the future. In order to get your new shows’ ad inventory to display as intended you’ll need to set-up a forecast for your program.
Forecasts are calculated using information from Dovetail such as your download numbers, number of episode segments & ad zones, along with the number of future episodes (drafts) scheduled in Dovetail Podcasts.
For existing Podcasts that are new to PRX Dovetail, and may not have historical download data in our system, you can manually set download parameters for Dovetail Inventory to use when calculating your inventory.
To set up your forecast in Dovetail Inventory you’ll first want to confirm that the following perquisites are in place:
- You are an admin of this shows group account
- Audio Templates exist for this series in Dovetail Podcasts
- Episode drafts exist for this series in Dovetail Podcasts
- Series has been pulled into Dovetail Inventory
- Placements have been set-up
Once those steps are complete you can run your show’s initial forecast!
We recommend first, running a test forecast, by selecting New Forecast from the left side menu.
All podcasts are considered new to our system upon their initial set-up; so select the New Podcast Toggle and enter the predicted episode drop size and growth step for your series.
Episode Drop Size
Number of downloads per episode in the first 5 days
Episode Growth Step
Difference of downloads with each episode drop; growth trend
For the initial forecast set-up you won’t need to change your Start or End Dates, Historical Data Start Date, Download Floor or toggle on the Update Inventory button - though these are options that you are able to use to customize your forecast output.
Next, Select Create Forecast and wait 1- 5 minutes for the magic to happen!
Once the forecast has been generated take a look at the predicted inventory and make sure it aligns with your expectations. If it does not - no worries - return to the New Forecast tab and adjust your episode drop size and growth step until you get something you’re comfortable with.
Once you have run a forecast that meets your needs - Navigate to the Forecasts tab, input your newly tested Forecast Settings and then click Update Series to save. This will ensure that Dovetail has the correct parameters to pull from when it runs nightly forecasts.
Once your podcast has accumulated between 3 - 4 months of download data you no longer require New Podcast settings! In this case, return to your series settings and turn off the New Podcast toggle, saves changes, and the forecast will begin to pull from your Metrics download data.