Forecasts are a projection of the number of downloads a podcast might receive in the future. In order to get your new shows’ ad inventory to display as intended you’ll need to set-up a forecast for your program.
Forecasts are calculated using information from Dovetail such as your download numbers, number of episode segments & ad zones, along with the number of future episodes (drafts) scheduled in Dovetail Podcasts.
For existing Podcasts that are new to PRX Dovetail and may not have historical download data in our system, you can manually set download parameters for Dovetail Inventory to use when calculating your inventory.
Prerequisites:
To set up your forecast in Dovetail Inventory you’ll first want to confirm that the following prerequisites are in place:
- You are an admin of this shows group account
- Episode drafts exist for this series in Dovetail Podcasts
- Series has been pulled into Dovetail Inventory
- Placements have been set-up
Once those steps are complete you can run your show’s initial forecast!
Step 1: From the Inventory start page, select Series from the options across the top.
Step 2: Select your show from those available. In the Manage Inventory window at the bottom of the page, select Managed (Static Model) from the dropdown menu.
Step 3: Enter values for Downloads on a Drop Week and Minimum Weekly Downloads.
| Download on a Drop Week | An estimate of the number of downloads in the first 5 days after an episode has been released |
| Minimum Weekly Downloads | An estimate of the number of downloads that all of your published episodes receive in a given week. |
Step 4: We recommend running a test forecast first. Select Managed Inventory from the left side menu options.
Step 5: Select New Inventory Forecast below the options on the left.
(You'll see the Start or End Dates, Historical Data Start Date, and Download Floor options and an Update Inventory toggle. You don't need to worry about these now; these are options that can be used to customize future forecasts.)
Step 6: Select Create Forecast and wait 1- 5 minutes for the magic to happen!
Once the forecast has been generated take a look at the predicted inventory and make sure it aligns with your expectations. If it does not - no worries - return to the Managed Inventory tab - adjust your Downloads on a Drop Week and Minimum Weekly Downloads - until you get something you’re comfortable with. Make sure to select Update Series so future forecasts will reflect the new values.
When your podcast has accumulated between 3 - 4 months of download data, the system has enough data to manage forecasts on their own. You can now change the inventory management selection to Managed (Machine-learning model) and Dovetail will manage future forecasts.
Once you have a forecast you're now ready to move on to setting up your campaigns and flights!